Trudeau Leaves Canada in Suspense as Anxious Liberals Urge Him to Resign

The holiday period has come to an end, but Canadian politics remains gripped by a single question: when will Justin Trudeau address the nation?

Table of Contents

A Puzzling Silence from the Prime Minister

Since December 16th, when Chrystia Freeland resigned as finance minister in a scathing public letter criticizing Trudeau, the prime minister has largely disappeared from public view. He spent much of the holidays at a ski resort in western Canada and is not planning any official events or appearances by the end of the week, according to a person familiar with his schedule.

A Growing Sense of Urgency Among Liberals

Despite Trudeau’s silence, anxious Liberals are urging him to quit as the party’s polling numbers continue to slide. The longer he waits to address both his party and the country, the more he risks provoking a Liberal rebellion. Nik Nanos, founder of Nanos Research, warns that if the current polling trends hold up in an election, the Liberals would lose most of their 153 seats.

The Challenges Ahead for the Liberal Party

Even with a new leader, the party would need a major turnaround in public opinion to save most of its seats. The last time the Liberals faced such a daunting task was in 2011, when they won just 19% of the popular vote and only 34 seats. Two years later, Trudeau took over as party leader and led the Liberals out of what many saw as a political wilderness.

A Difficult Road Ahead for Trudeau

The longer Trudeau waits to address both his party and the country, the more he risks inflicting damage on the party brand. Nanos warns that a politically wounded prime minister is not in a strong position to negotiate with world leaders like Donald Trump. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party faces a precarious hold on parliament, with the three largest opposition parties promising to vote no confidence.

The Risks of Delaying a Leadership Race

A leadership race may take up to three months to run, and even then, it would be challenging for the Liberals to smoothly transition to new leadership. The winner would have only weeks before being thrown into a national campaign. To ensure continuity in government, Trudeau could resign but stay on as prime minister while a leadership race takes place.

The Stakes for the Liberal Party

Regardless of who becomes the next leader, the party faces a difficult road ahead. Even with a new leader, they would need to make significant gains in public opinion to save most of their seats and hold onto government. For now, Trudeau’s silence continues to dominate Canadian politics.

The Quotes

"Simply put, time is of the essence." – Nik Nanos
"A politically wounded prime minister is not really in a very strong position to negotiate anything with someone like Donald Trump." – Nik Nanos

The Data

In 2011, the Liberals won just 19% of the popular vote and only 34 seats.
The current polling trends suggest that if they were an election, the Liberals would lose most of their 153 seats.